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PEACHYHABANERO

Now that AI makes it easy to generate websites and graphics, I'll be tracking my thoughts, commentary and analysis here. I tweak and add to this site often. Think of it as a public research notebook containing some of my thoughts, ideas and analyses, with the hope that they may be of some use.

Articles

Article · later this week

The Next Point

The next quarterly print on the two cubes. Placeholder until the note is written.

Analyses

Treasury · live

Sustainability Cube

Interest / till, the refi gap, and public debt / GDP. Danger and restruct zones on the Treasury book — when service crowds the budget and the roll feeds the stock.

Treasury · live

Fiscal Dominance Cube

Funds versus the book coupon, interest versus general-fund receipts, and the primary deficit. The region where a hike is fiscally unthinkable even if the inflation mandate wants one.

Treasury · live

Who is Financing the Treasury

Extra public debt, split into the Fed, foreign investors, and leftover private buyers. Who took the paper after 2020, after 2022, and in the last four quarters.

Draft

Phase

Unfinished. The block diagram of the plant: a debt stock, a coupon that lags the market yield, and the market that sets that yield.

Reference data

Pipeline · live

Data & calculations

Raw FRED and Fiscal Data tables, the quarterly complete cases, and worked arithmetic behind calculated series.

Reference · live

Trackers

The Treasury yield curve, daily since 2000. The line is the latest day. The surface is the curve through time.