What each number is
- F1 / funds − stock coupon — FEDFUNDS minus Fiscal Data Total Marketable coupon.
Raw x1 = funds − coupon. Wire at 0, direction at_or_below.
y1 = F1 = −(x1 − 0) / σ(x1). F1 > 0 means funds are at or under the book (a hike tightens the fiscal rate).
- F2 / interest ÷ general-fund receipts — NIPA federal interest (A091) over current receipts minus social-insurance contributions (FGRECPT − W780). Unthinkable at or above 20% of that till. Unified receipts and tax-only stay on the tables as diagnostics, not the cube.
- F3 / primary deficit ÷ GDP — (outlays − interest − receipts) / GDP. Unthinkable at or above 0.
- fail — AND of those three wires after standardizing through the threshold file.
y = (x − c) / σ, flipped if direction is at_or_below. s = 1 when y > 0.
04 / raw columns (Treasury formulas + Fed-mandate store)
Same frames as the nightly cache. Official holdings —
WALCL
(Fed total assets),
WSHOTSL
(SOMA Treasuries),
WSHOBL
(SOMA bills),
WSHONBNL
(SOMA notes and bonds),
WSHONBIIL
(SOMA TIPS), FDHBFIN — and
RRPONTSYD
(ON RRP) live in 04 raw. New mandate series (PCE/CPI, payrolls,
JOLTS, breakevens, target range) are stored here as raw levels.
06 / next-quarter nowcast
Not a BEA print. A Gemini guess for the next quarter —
often wrong, sometimes amusing. Gemini searches for the next
prints (GDP, A091, FGRECPT, W006, W780, FGEXPND, debt held by
the public). Python then builds every ratio, the refi gap, and
F1/F2/F3. σ is the published sample plus this guess row. Live
CMTs × last Table 3 weights own refi. Sources below are the URLs
Gemini listed in its JSON that night.
07 / daily refi tape
Not the cube. The cube is quarterly. This is last-known
Table 3
remaining-maturity weights (TIPS dropped, rest renormalized) times
that day's CMT, minus last
Fiscal Data Total Marketable coupon.
Mix and coupon sit still until the next monthly print. A hike shows
up the next morning because the yields moved, not because the book did.
0–1 year uses DGS3MO
(daily). The cube’s monthly print uses
TB3MS. FRN uses
DFF. A day is blank
if a published bucket has weight and no CMT that day — no fill.
Gold dots are the cube’s quarterly print, for comparison.
loading daily_refi.json…