What each number is
- F1 / funds − stock coupon — effective funds minus NIPA interest ÷ debt stock. Unthinkable at or below 0: hiking is the fiscal rate.
- F2 / interest ÷ receipts — NIPA federal interest over current receipts. Unthinkable at or above 20%.
- F3 / primary deficit ÷ GDP — (outlays − interest − receipts) / GDP. Unthinkable at or above 0.
- Amplifiers 4–6 — term premium, r − g, NFCI. Color only. They do not define fail.
- fail — AND of the three fiscal wires after standardizing through the threshold file.
y = (x − c) / σ, flipped if direction is at_or_below. s = 1 when y > 0.